Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.

Question

Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.

Month

Demand

1

24

2

18

3

23

4

23

5

18

6

19

a) The MAD based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = Blank 1 (4 decimal places)

b) The MAD based on the 3 months moving average method = Blank 2 (in 4 decimal places)

c) The MSE based on the 3 months moving average method = Blank 3

d) Use MAD as an criterion to evaluate forecasting methods I (exponential smoothing, = 0.2 ) and II (3 month moving average). The most accurate forecasting methods between I and II is method Blank 4 (enter I or II)

Month

Demand

1

24

2

18

3

23

4

23

5

18

6

19

Explanation / Answer

a)

MAD = 2.82592

b)

MAD = 2.3333

MSE = 6.1111

d) using MAD

accurate is 3-point moving average as 2.333 < 2.8259

Please rate my solution

Exponential alpha = 0.2 24 24 6 22.8 0.2 22.84 0.16 22.872 4.872 21.8976 2.8976 2.82592

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