Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
ID: 3155229 • Letter: G
Question
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
a) The MAD based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = _______________ 1 (4 decimal places).
b) The MAD based on the 3 months moving average method = _________________ (in 4 decimal places).
c) The MSE based on the 3 months moving average method = ____________________ (in 4 decimal places).
d) Use MAD as an criterion to evaluate forecasting methods I (exponential smoothing, = 0.2 ) and II (3 month moving average). The most accurate forecasting methods between I and II is method = _________________ (select to type in as I or II).
e) Month 4 Forecast based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = ___________________ (4 decimal places).
f) Month 6 Forecast based on 3 months moving average method = __________________ (4 decimal places).
Explanation / Answer
a.
The MAD based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = 1.6947
b.
The MAD based on the 3 months moving average method = 0.7500
c. The MSE based on the 3 months moving average method = 0.33332 + 0.33332 + 1.33332 + 12 = 3
d. The most accurate forecasting methods between I and II is method is type II (as MAD is minimum for this method).
e. Month 4 Forecast based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = 19.8
f. Month 6 Forecast based on 3 months moving average method = 19
Month Demand hat Yt Abs Dev 1 21 21 0.0000 2 16 21 5.0000 3 19 20 1.0000 4 17 19.8 2.8000 5 20 19.24 0.7600 6 20 19.392 0.6080 1.6947Related Questions
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