Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
ID: 3171841 • Letter: G
Question
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
Month
Demand
1
27
2
28
3
27
4
26
5
30
6
28
a) The MAD based on the Exponential smoothing = 0.2 method = Blank 1 (4 decimal places)
b) The MAD based on the 3 months moving average method = Blank 2 (in 4 decimal places)
c) Use MAD as an criterion to evaluate forecasting methods I (exponential smoothing, = 0.2 ) and II (3 month moving average). The most accurate forecasting methods between I and II is method Blank 3 (enter I or II)
Month
Demand
1
27
2
28
3
27
4
26
5
30
6
28
Explanation / Answer
as from exponential smooting forecast for t+1th period
Ft+1 =alpha*last month actual +(1-alpha)*last month forecast
a)
from above MAD =1.1779
b) for 3 month moving average method
here MAD is 0.9333
c)from both 3 month moving average is better as it has lower value of MAD
Month Demand(A) Forecast(F) |A-F| 1 27 2 28 27.00 1.00 3 27 27.20 0.20 4 26 27.16 1.16 5 30 26.93 3.07 6 28 27.54 0.46 Total 5.89 mean 1.18Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.