Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
ID: 3196561 • Letter: G
Question
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.
Month
Demand
1
625
2
734
3
711
4
603
5
668
6
785
Use the table below to answer all questions:
Month
Demand
Forecast
1
625
F1
2
734
F2
3
711
F3
4
603
F4
5
668
F5
6
785
F6
7
F7
If the demands forecast is Not Possible (NP) to generate for a particular month, then you must type in NP as your answer.
a) The F3 by using Naïve forecasting method = ______
b) The F3 by using 2 months moving average =______ (in 2 decimal places)
c) The F4 by using Naïve forecasting method = _______
d) The F4 by using 4 months moving average = _____ (in 2 decimal places)
e) The F6 by using 3 months moving average = _______ (in 2 decimal places)
f) The F7 by using 4 months moving average = ______(in 2 decimal places)
Month
Demand
1
625
2
734
3
711
4
603
5
668
6
785
Explanation / Answer
Naïve method uses the demand for the current month as the forecast of the next month.
So, Ft+1=Dt
Using above formula table forecast for given historical data is:
Month
Demand
Naïve Forecast
1
625
2
734
F2= F1+1=D1 =625
3
711
F3= F2+1=D2=734
4
603
F4= F3+1=D3=711
5
668
F5= F4+1=D4=603
6
785
F6= F5+1=D5=668
7
F7= F6+1=D6=785
c) F4=711
Now, in 2-month moving average the average of previous 2 months demands are taken for forecast of next month.
So, Ft+1= (Dt +Dt-1)/2
Similarly, in 3-month moving average the average of previous 2 months demands are taken for forecast of next month.
So, Ft+1= (Dt +Dt-1+Dt-2)/3
And in 3-month moving average the average of previous 2 months demands are taken for forecast of next month.
So, Ft+1= (Dt +Dt-1+Dt-2+Dt-3)/4
Using above formulas table forecast for given historical data is:
Month
Demand
2-month moving average
3-month moving average
4-month moving average
1
625
2
734
3
711
F3=F2+1=(D2+D1)/2=(734+625)/2=679.5
4
603
F4=F3+1=(D3+D2)/2=(711+734)/2=722.5
F4=F3+1=(D3+D2+D1)/3=(711+734+625)/3=690
5
668
F5=F4+1=(D4+D3)/2=(603+711)/2=657
F5=F4+1=(D4+D3+D2)/3=(603+711+734)/3=682.66
F5=F4+1=(D4+D3+D2+D1)/4=(603+711+734+625)/4=668.25
6
785
F6=F5+1=(D5+D4)/2=(668+603)/2=635.5
F6=F5+1=(D5+D4+D3)/3=(668+603+711)/3=660.66
F6=F5+1=(D5+D4+D3+D2)/4=(668+603+711+734)/4=679
7
F7=F6+1=(D6+D5)/2=(785+668)/2=726.5
F7=F6+1=(D6+D5+D4)/3=(785+668+603)/3=685.33
F7=F6+1=(D6+D4+D3+D2)/4=(785+668+603+711)/4=691.75
a)F3=679.5
d) F4=can’t be determined
e) F6=660.66
f)F7=691.75
Month
Demand
Naïve Forecast
1
625
2
734
F2= F1+1=D1 =625
3
711
F3= F2+1=D2=734
4
603
F4= F3+1=D3=711
5
668
F5= F4+1=D4=603
6
785
F6= F5+1=D5=668
7
F7= F6+1=D6=785
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