Given is a historical time series for job services demand. 11 715 F11 F12 If you

Question

Given is a historical time series for job services demand.

11 715 F11

F12

If you were not able to generate a forecast for particular period, you should enter N. Also, F3 means Period 3 Forecast.

Use Weighted moving average with weights of 0.09, 0.11, 0.16, 0.25, 0.39 to answer Questions 1) to 3).

1) The F5 =_________________ in 2 decimal places

2) The F9 =________________ in 2 decimal places

3) If you were told to prepare a forecast schedule, the forecast schedule should contain forecast demands from Period__________________ to Period _________.

Use Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.29 to answer Questions 4) to 6)

4) The F2 = _________________ in 2 decimal places

5) The F3 = _________________ in 2 decinmal places

6) If you were told to prepare a forecast schedule, the forecast schedule should contain forecast demands from Period________________ to period ___________.

1 587 F1 2 611 F2 3 598 F3 4 698 F4 5 688 F5 6 701 F6 7 654 F7 8 698 F8 9 635 F9 10 678 F10

Explanation / Answer

1. Weighted MA(F5)=0.39*698+0.25*598+0.16*611+0.11*587 [Ft+1=Wt1*Dt+Wt2*Dt-1+Wt3*Dt-2+Wt4*Dt-3], remember to put more weights to demand which is closer to the time period being forcast.

=584.05

2. Weighted MA(F9)=0.39*698+0.25*654+0.16*701+0.11*688+0.09*698=686.38.

3. The forecast should contain forecast schedule from period 1 to period 12. Because, a twelve years forecast schedule is anyway useful for manager to determine the trend or observe any pattern.

4. Applying exponential smoothing, Mt=alpha*Ft+(1-alpha)*Ft-1, where, 0<=alpha<=1

M1=F1= 587

M2=0.29F2+(1-0.29)F1

=0.29*611+0.71*587=593.96 (ans)

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