Forecast sales for week 6 using the naive method, a simple average, and a three-
ID: 3147295 • Letter: F
Question
Forecast sales for week 6 using the naive method, a simple average, and a three- period moving average. 2. Rosa's Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. The restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager, has collected information on the number of customers served each day for the past two weeks. If Mario expects total demand for next week to be around 350, what is the forecast for each day of next week? Number of Customers Week 1Wee Day Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 48 32 30 97 52 36 35 89 98 65 69 Page 1 of 1Explanation / Answer
total demand for week1 = 52+36+35+89+98+65 = 375
total demand for week2 = 48+32+30+97+99+69 = 375
since both demand for week1 and two was 375, and we know the demand for next week to be around350.
ratio of forecast/actual in previous weeks = 350/375 = 14/15
average demand for tuesday = (52+48)/2 = 50
multiplying with ratio for forecast= 50*14/15 = 46.67 = 47 (rounding to nearest integer)
wednesday average demand = (36+32)/2 = 34
multiplying with ratio for forecast = 34*14/15 = 31.733 = 32 (rounding to nearest integer)
Thursday average demand = (35+30)/2 = 32.5
multiplying with ratio for forecast = 32.5*14/15 = 30.33 = 30 (rounding to nearest integer)
Friday average demand = (89+97)/2 = 93
multiplying with ratio for forecast = 93*14/15 = 86.8 = 87 (rounding to nearest integer)
Saturday average demand = (98+99)/2 = 98.5
multiplying with ratio for forecast = 98.5*14/15 = 91.93 = 94 (rounding to nearest integer)
Sunday average demand = (65+69)/2 = 67
multiplying with ratio for forecast = 67*14/15 = 62.5 = 62 (rounding to nearest integer)
Hence forecast for next week:
Tuesday = 47
Wednesday = 32
Thursday = 30
Friday = 87
Saturday = 94
Sunday = 62
total week demand = 47+32+30+87+94+62 = 352
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