You left your cell phone either in the computer lab or in the cafeteria. You thi

Question

You left your cell phone either in the computer lab or in the cafeteria. You think that with probability 0.6 it happened in the computer lab. because you always take it out of your pocket there. With probability 0.4 it happened in the cafeteria. If you left the phone in the computer lab. there is a probability 0.3 that someone stole it. In the cafeteria, that probability is 0.6. (a) What is the probability that you will find your cell phone? (either in the lab or in the cafeteria) (b) Given that you found the cell phone, what is the probability that you left it in the cafeteria?

Explanation / Answer

a) P(Lab OR Cafeteria)=0.6*0.7+0.4*0.4=0.58

The probability of phone finding in lab, that is not stolen is 0.6*0.7 and finding phone at cafeteria that is not stolen, is 0.4*0.4.

b) P(Cafeteria | Cell phone found)=0.4/0.58=0.69

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