HIV in Swaziland. Swaziland has the highest HIV prevalence in the world: 25.9% o

Question

HIV in Swaziland. Swaziland has the highest HIV prevalence in the world: 25.9% of this country’s population is infected with HIV.66 The ELISA test is one of the first and most accurate tests for HIV. For those who carry HIV, the ELISA test is 99.7% accurate. For those who do not carry HIV, the test is 92.6% accurate. If an individual from Swaziland has tested positive, what is the probability that he carries HIV? HIV in Swaziland. Swaziland has the highest HIV prevalence in the world: 25.9% of this country’s population is infected with HIV.66 The ELISA test is one of the first and most accurate tests for HIV. For those who carry HIV, the ELISA test is 99.7% accurate. For those who do not carry HIV, the test is 92.6% accurate. If an individual from Swaziland has tested positive, what is the probability that he carries HIV?

Explanation / Answer

Answers to the question:

P( tests +ive) = .997*.259 +(1-.259)(1-.926)

= .31306

P( carries HIV) = .259*.997/.313

= .825

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