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An investment counselor calls with a hot stock tip. He believes that if the econ

ID: 3172806 • Letter: A

Question

An investment counselor calls with a hot stock tip. He believes that if the economy remains strong, the investment will result in a profit of $60,000. If the economy grows at a moderate pace, the investment will result in a profit of S20.000. However, if the economy goes into recession, the investment will result in a loss of $60,000. You contact an economist who believes there is a 20% probability the economy will remain strong, a 70% probability the economy will grow at a moderate pace, and a 10% probability the economy will slip into recession. What is the expected profit from this investment? The expected profit is $

Explanation / Answer

Solution:

economy strong 60,000 * 20%
moderate 20,000 * 60%
recession 50,000 * 10%


E(profit) = (60000)(20%) + (20000)(60%) + (-60000)(20%) = $12000

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