This question from Quantitiative method course. SportXpert want to use the simpl
ID: 3174986 • Letter: T
Question
This question from Quantitiative method course.
SportXpert want to use the simple exponential smoothing on the bike sales given in question 5 (Below) Assume that F1 is perfect.
a: Develop a simple exponential smoothing with a=0.3 and compute the MAD.
b: The MAD of a simple exponential smoothing with a=0.4 is 0.87. What value of a (0.3 or 0.4) should SportXpert choose?
Question (5).
Bike sales at SportXpert are shown below:
Week
Bike Sales
1
4
2
5
3
4
4
6
5
5
6
7
7
-
Develop a 3-week weighted moving average forecast by weighting the three weeks as follows:
Weights Applied
Period
4
Last week
3
Two weeks ago
1
Three weeks ago
8
Total
Week
Bike Sales
1
4
2
5
3
4
4
6
5
5
6
7
7
-
Explanation / Answer
as forecast by exponential smoothing
Forecast =a*last month actual +(1-a)*last month forecast
from above MAD =1.1 at a=0.3
hence we should choose a=0.4 to reduce errror
3 week weighted average forecast =(4*lastweek+3*two week ago+1*three week ago)/8
Week Bike Sales(A) forecast(F) |A-F| 1 4 2 5 4.00 1.00 3 4 4.30 0.30 4 6 4.21 1.79 5 5 4.75 0.25 6 7 4.82 2.18 7 - 5.48 total 5.52 mean 1.10Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.