More predicting NFL wins. Refer to the model in Exercise 0.10 for predicting the

Question

More predicting NFL wins. Refer to the model in Exercise 0.10 for predicting the number of games won in a 16-game NFL season based on the average number of points scored per game (PF) and average number of points allowed per game (PA). Use the model to predict the number of wins for the 2010 New England Patriots, who scored 513 points and allowed 342 points in their 16 games. The Patriots actually won 13 games in 2010. Determine their residual from this model, and interpret what this means. The largest positive residual value from this model for the 2010 season belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, with a residual value of 2.11 games. The Chiefs actually won seven games. Determine this model's predicted number of wins for the Chiefs. The largest negative residual value from this model for the 2010 season belongs to the Minnesota Vikings, with a residual value of -3.81 games. Interpret what this residual means. 0.10 Predicting NFL wins. Consider the following model for predicting the number of games that a National Football League (NFL) team wins in a season: Wins = 4.6 + 0.5PF - 0.3PA + where PF stands for average points a team scores per game over an entire season and PA stands for points allowed per game. Currently, each team plays 16 games in a season.

Explanation / Answer

(a)

Here we have

PF=513/16=32.0625, PA = 342/16=21.375

The required predicted value si

Wins = 4.6+0.5PF- 0.3PA= 4.6 +0.5*32.0625 -0.3 * 21.375=14.21875

hence, requried predicted wins is 14.22.

(b)

Residual= Actual Value - Predicted Value = 13 -14.22 = -1.22

(c)

2.11 = 7 - predicted value

Predicted value = 7- 2.11 = 4.89

(d)

Model over predicted the wins of Minesota Vikings by the balue of 3.81.

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