Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of t

Question

Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 70.7 Q2 89.8 Q3 105.9 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,922 Time 66.1 What is the forecast for period 111, if period 111 is a Q1? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place) MUST SHOW CALCULATIONS AND WORK

Explanation / Answer

here for period 111 , deseasonalized forecast =2922+66.1*111=10259.1

hence seasonalized forecast =deseasonalized forecast *seasonal index =10259.1*0.707 =7253.184

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