Spaulding: Hello! I must be going! I cannot stay, I came to say I must be going.

Question

Spaulding: Hello! I must be going! I cannot stay, I came to say I must be going. I'm glad I came, but just the same I must be going. Mrs. Rittenhouse: For my sake you must stay. If you should go away, you'll spoil this party I am throwing. Spalding: I'll stay a week or two. I'll stay the summer through. But I am telling you I must be going. If the probability of Captain Spaulding's leaving on any given day is 0.10 and the act of leaving is independent from day to day, what is the probability that "I'll stay a week or two"? (that is, today is day 1 and Spaulding leaves on day 8 or day 15.)

Explanation / Answer

a) P(Spaulding leaves on day 8) = 0.97x0.1 = 0.048

P(Spaulding leaves on day 15) = 0.914x0.1 = 0.023

So, probability that he will stay a week or two = 0.048+0.023 = 0.071

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