The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Yea
ID: 3262204 • Letter: T
Question
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
7
10
5
9
13
9
12
14
9
11
8
a) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12
(round
your responses to one decimal place).
Year
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
b) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).
Year
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
c) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2.23 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 2.49. Based on this information, the better forecast is achieved using the following approach:
A.
weighted moving average
B.
3-year moving average
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
7
10
5
9
13
9
12
14
9
11
8
Explanation / Answer
a) Forecast for period 4 = (7 + 10 + 5)/3 = 22/3 = 7.3
Similarly,
The table for forecast will be:
b) Forecast for period 4 = (7*0.15 + 10*0.30 + 5*0.55) = 6.8
Similarly,
The table for forecast will be:
c) Option C is correct.
Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 7.3 8.0 9.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.3 9.3Related Questions
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