Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) nex

Question

Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the following probabilities: P(Win WS I WinPennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WS I Win Pennant) P(Win Pennant)=P(Win WS and Win Pennant). To play in the World Series( WS) The team must first win the Pennant.

a.) Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you

adjust your assessments to make p = q? Why or why not?

b.) If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite major league baseball team.

Explanation / Answer

By the definition given in the question ,

p = the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) next year.

= P(Win WS)

which will be the same as q

since q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WS| Win Pennant)P(Pennant)

p should be equal to q.

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