Consider the following data on y and x that also appear on the text website, lab

Question

Consider the following data on y and x that also appear on the text website, labeled Exercise 18.36 156.96 9.171.61 2 57.28 9,286.56 3 57.79 9.320.19 4 56.50 9.280.97 5 54.80 9.256.26 6 54.92 9.370.07 7 53.15 9.337.95 8 53.35 9.241.45 9 53.91 9.361.61 10 52.74 9.398.19 11 52.09 9.135.34 12 51.99 9,217.94 he a. Estimate yt=0 + |xt-1 + t. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) y-forecast x t-1 b. Estimate yt= 0 + |yt-1 + t (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) y-forecast yt-1 c. Estimate yt = 0 + |xt-1 + 2yt-1 + t. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) y-forecast d. Use the most suitable model to make a one-step-ahead forecast (t = 13) for y. (Round intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places and final answer to 2 decimal places.) y-forecast

Explanation / Answer

The data looks like this and analysis is carried out on this.

A) y(t)=113.62-0.006x(t-1), R Square= 0.06

B) y(t)=3.93+0.92y(t-1), R Square=0.81

C) y(t)=56.8-0.005x(t-1)+0.91y(t-1), R Square=0.86

D)R Square is the maximum in model- C and so we choose that model

y(13)=56.8-0.008x(12)+0.91y(12)=56.8-0.005*9217.9+0.91*51.99=58.02

x(t) y(t) x(t-1) y(t-1) 1 9171.6 56.96 -- -- 2 9286.5 57.28 9171.6 56.96 3 9320.1 57.79 9286.5 57.28 4 9280.9 56.5 9320.1 57.79 5 9256.2 54.8 9280.9 56.5 6 9370 54.92 9256.2 54.8 7 9337.9 53.15 9370 54.92 8 9241.4 53.35 9337.9 53.15 9 9361.6 53.91 9241.4 53.35 10 9398.1 52.74 9361.6 53.91 11 9135.3 52.09 9398.1 52.74 12 9217.9 51.99 9135.3 52.09 9217.9 51.99

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