Can someone verify these entries for me? Thanks! Consider the following sample d

Question

Can someone verify these entries for me? Thanks!

Consider the following sample data, consisting of 20 observations t123 4 5 67 8 9 10 yt 12.0 11.2 11.7 9.7 11.3 8.3 14.5 8.4 12.6 11.3 20 t 11 113 14 15 16 17 18 19 yt 9.9 11.7 14.2 11.7 9.4 10.3 12.6 9.2 8.2 13.2 er he b-1. Use the exponential smoothing method to make forecasts with = 0.2. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) y-forecast Yt 112.0 2 11.2 3 11.7 12 11.2 19 8.2 20 13.2 21 10.94 10.39 10.95 b-2. Compute the resulting MSE and MAD. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) MSE MAD 4.31 1.71 C-1. Use the exponential smoothing method to make forecasts with = 0.4. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) y-forecast 112.0 2 11.2 3 11.7 12 11.68 19 8.2 20 13.2 21 10.57 9.62 10.95

Explanation / Answer

b-1) exponential forecast:

b-2) MSE =4.31

MAD =1.71

c-1)

foecast

c-2) MSE =5.09

MAD =1.88

d) for 1st forecast has less error ; therefore forecast =10.95

t yt(A) forecast(F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 1 12 2 11.2 12 0.80 0.64 3 11.7 11.84 0.14 0.02 4 9.7 11.81 2.11 4.46 5 11.3 11.39 0.09 0.01 6 8.3 11.37 3.07 9.44 7 14.5 10.76 3.74 14.01 8 8.4 11.51 3.11 9.65 9 12.6 10.88 1.72 2.94 10 11.3 11.23 0.07 0.01 11 9.9 11.24 1.34 1.80 12 11.7 10.97 0.73 0.53 13 14.2 11.12 3.08 9.49 14 11.7 11.74 0.04 0.00 15 9.4 11.73 2.33 5.42 16 10.3 11.26 0.96 0.93 17 12.6 11.07 1.53 2.34 18 9.2 11.38 2.18 4.74 19 8.2 10.94 2.74 7.51 20 13.2 10.39 2.81 7.88 10.95 total 32.58 81.80 average 1.71 4.31

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