5.00 points Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used

Question

5.00 points Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T- 107.10+1.13t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as 3,-0.96,32-0.86,3-1.18, and 34 - 1.18. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 96% above 98% below 4% above 4% below a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter as compared to the average? 82% below 18% below O 18% above 82% above b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places y-forecast Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Explanation / Answer

a-1) 4% below

D option

a-2) 18% above

C option

b) Quarter 1 = (107.1 + 1.13 * 25) * 0.96 = 129.94

Quarter 1 = (107.1 + 1.13 * 26) * 0.86 = 117.37

Quarter 1 = (107.1 + 1.13 * 27) * 1.18 = 162.38

Quarter 1 = (107.1 + 1.13 * 28) * 1.18 = 163.71

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