The following data represent the selling price of three-month old calves at a du

Question

The following data represent the selling price of three-month old calves at a during the past 22 weeks. 1. livestock auction week l price (s) week l price (S) 175 174 176 174 2 172 173 174 173 174 173 180 181 176 182 175 176 174 3 1712 180 A. Prepare a line graph for these data. B. Compute by exponential smoothing with alpha 0.40 the I period ahead forecast. Calculate the MSE, RMSE and MAE for this model. C. Compute the moving average forecast for 1 period ahead (periods 5) D. Prepare a graph showing the original data, the fits and forecast forecasts on one chart. E. Prepare an Excel worksheet with the answers to parts a, b, c and d. The following data shows seasonal attendance at Broadway Theaters in New York City over a five year period. 2.

Explanation / Answer

Moving Average Forecast for 1 period

Week Price (Actual) Exp Smoothening Forecast Error Absolute Error Square of Error Absolute value of error divided by Actual values 1 176 176 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 2 171 176.00 -5.00 5.00 25.00 0.029 3 174 173.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.006 4 177 173.60 3.40 3.40 11.56 0.019 1 172 175.64 -3.64 3.64 13.25 0.021 2 173 173.46 -0.46 0.46 0.21 0.003 3 174 173.18 0.82 0.82 0.67 0.005 4 173 173.67 -0.67 0.67 0.45 0.004 1 174 173.27 0.73 0.73 0.53 0.004 2 173 173.71 -0.71 0.71 0.50 0.004 3 171 173.28 -2.28 2.28 5.21 0.013 4 175 171.91 3.09 3.09 9.53 0.018 1 174 173.77 0.23 0.23 0.06 0.001 2 177 173.91 3.09 3.09 9.57 0.017 3 180 175.76 4.24 4.24 17.96 0.024 4 181 178.30 2.70 2.70 7.26 0.015 1 176 179.92 -3.92 3.92 15.38 0.022 2 182 177.57 4.43 4.43 19.64 0.024 3 175 180.23 -5.23 5.23 27.33 0.030 4 176 177.09 -1.09 1.09 1.19 0.006 1 174 176.44 -2.44 2.44 5.94 0.014 2 180 174.97 5.03 5.03 25.26 0.028 Forecast for 1 period 177.99 Sum 197.49 0.31 MSE (Summation of(Actual - Forecast)^2)/N 8.98 RMSE Root of MSE 3.00 MAE (Summation of Absolute value of error divided by actual values)/N 0.01

Week Price (Actual) Moving Average 1 176 2 171 3 174 4 177 1 172 2 173 174 3 174 173.4 4 173 174 1 174 173.8 2 173 173.2 3 171 173.4 4 175 173 1 174 173.2 2 177 173.4 3 180 174 4 181 175.4 1 176 177.4 2 182 177.6 3 175 179.2 4 176 178.8 1 174 178 2 180 176.6

Moving Average Forecast for 1 period

177.4

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