1- What were the statistics values ? what were the parameter values? 2-What was
ID: 3337673 • Letter: 1
Question
1- What were the statistics values ? what were the parameter values?
2-What was the response rate in the study?
3-What types of errors were present in the study?briefly explain and justify your answers.
(write approximatly 250 words)
The presidential election of 1936 pitted Alfred Landon, the Republican governor of Kansas, against the incumbent President, Franklin D. Roosevelt. The year 1936 marked the end of the Great Depression, and economic issues such as unemployment and government spending were the dominant themes of the campaign. The Literary Digest was one of the most respected magazines of the time and had a history of accurately predicting the winners of presidential elections that dated back to 1916. For the 1936 election, the Literary Digest prediction was that Landon would get 57% of the vote against Roosevelt's 43% (these are the statistics that the poll measured). The actual results of the election were 62% for Roosevelt against 38% for Landon (these were the parameters the poll was trying to measure). The sampling error in the Literary Digest poll was a whopping 19%, the largest ever in a major public opinion poll. Practically all of the sampling error was the result of sample bias.
The irony of the situation was that the Literary Digest poll was also one of the largest and most expensive polls ever conducted, with a sample size of around 2.4 million people! At the same time the Literary Digest was making its fateful mistake, George Gallup was able to predict a victory for Roosevelt using a much smaller sample of about 50,000 people.
This illustrates the fact that bad sampling methods cannot be cured by increasing the size of the sample, which in fact just compounds the mistakes. The critical issue in sampling is not sample size but how best to reduce sample bias. There are many different ways that bias can creep into the sample selection process. Two of the most common occurred in the case of the Literary Digest poll.
The Literary Digest's method for choosing its sample was as follows: Based on every telephone directory in the United States, lists of magazine subscribers, rosters of clubs and associations, and other sources, a mailing list of about 10 million names was created. Every name on this lest was mailed a mock ballot and asked to return the marked ballot to the magazine.
One cannot help but be impressed by the sheer ambition of such a project. Nor is is surprising that the magazine's optimism and confidence were in direct proportion to the magnitude of its effort. In its August 22, 1936 issue, the Litereary Digest announced:
Once again, [we are] asking more than ten million voters -- one out of four, representing every county in the United States -- to settle November's election in October.
Next week, the first answers from these ten million will begin the incoming tide of marked ballots, to be triple-checked, verified, five-times cross-classified and totaled. When the last figure has been totted and checked, if past experience is a criterion, the country will know to within a fraction of 1 percent the actual popular vote of forty million [voters].
out of 10 million people whose names were on the original mailing list, only about 2.4 million responded to survey. Thus the size of sample was about one-fourth of what was originally intended.
Explanation / Answer
a) A statistic and a parameter are very similar. They are both descriptions of groups, like “50% of dog owners prefer X Brand dog food.” The difference between astatistic and a parameter is that statistics describe a sample. A parameterdescribes an entire population.
Landon would get 57% of the vote against Roosevelt's 43% (these are the statistics that the poll measured).
The actual results of the election were 62% for Roosevelt against 38% for Landon (these were the parameters the poll was trying to measure).
2) Response rate = 2.4/10 = 0.24 million
3) The sampling error in the Literary Digest poll was a whopping 19%, the largest ever in a major public opinion poll. Practically all of the sampling error was the result of sample bias.
wo of the most common occurred in the case of the Literary Digest poll.
The Literary Digest's method for choosing its sample was as follows: Based on every telephone directory in the United States, lists of magazine subscribers, rosters of clubs and associations, and other sources, a mailing list of about 10 million names was created. Every name on this lest was mailed a mock ballot and asked to return the marked ballot to the magazine.
Sampling error was there and the cost of suvey was huge.
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