Using the following deseasonalized data develop a trend line and forecast sales

Question

Using the following deseasonalized data develop a trend line and forecast sales for the first quarter next year. The seasonal indexes are given below the table.

Year

1

2

3

4

Q1

Q2

257.54

Q3

Q4

Seasonal Index

Q1: 2.07

Q2: 0.62

Q3: 0.33

Q4: 0.97

The adjusted forecast for the first quarter of next year is                        [ Select ] ["295.17", "611.01", "643.75", "315.83"]

Year

1

2

3

4

Q1

241.63 251.29 265.79 287.54

Q2

257.54

225.35 273.63 289.73

Q3

239.14 254.09 269.04 283.98

Q4

225.66 256.43 266.69 297.46

Explanation / Answer

from regression between t and DV:

DV =3.954t+227.952

hence for next year deseasoned forecast =3.954*17+227.952=295.172

sesoned forecast =295.172*2.07=611.01

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