Using the following deseasonalized data develop a trend line and forecast sales

Question

Using the following deseasonalized data develop a trend line and forecast sales for the second quarter next year. The seasonal indexes are given below the table.

Year

1

2

3

4

Q1

Q2

257.54

Q3

Q4

Seasonal Index

Q1: 2.07

Q2: 0.62

Q3: 0.33

Q4: 0.97

The adjusted forecast for the second quarter of next year is                           [ Select ]                       ["185.46", "299.13", "303.08", "98.71"]      

Use Excel Quiz 5, Linear Trend 2, round to two decimal places

Year

1

2

3

4

Q1

241.63 251.29 265.79 287.54

Q2

257.54

225.35 273.63 289.73

Q3

239.14 254.09 269.04 283.98

Q4

225.66 256.43 266.69 297.46

Explanation / Answer

for given data:

least square line equation sales forecast =3.954*t+227.952

therfore for 2nd quarter of next year (t=18) ; forecasted deseasonalized sales=3.954*18+227.952=299.126

hence adjusted forecast for the second quarter of next year is =seasonal index*deseasonalized sales

=0.62*299.126=185.46

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