(Optional topic) Should the government help the poor? In the 2014 General Social

Question

(Optional topic) Should the government help the poor? In the 2014 General Social Survey, 32% of those sampled thought of themselves as Democrats, 45% as Independents, 21% as Republicans, and 2% as Other.23 When asked, “Should the government in Washington do everything possible to improve the standard of living of all poor Americans?,” 23% of the Democrats, 18% of the Independents, 4% of the Republicans, and 15% of Others agreed. Given that a person agrees that the government in Washington should do everything possible to improve the standard of living of all poor Americans, use Bayes’ rule to find the probability the person thinks of him- or herself as a Democrat.

Explanation / Answer

From the given data, the following Table is formed:

                                  Democrats            Independents               Republic       Others             Total

Agreed                     0.32X0.23=0.0736     0.45 X 0.18=0.0810     0.21X0.0.04=0.0084 0.02X0.15=0.0030 0.1660

Did not agree                0.2464                       0.3690                     0.2016                  0.0170          0.8340

Total                             0.32                     0.45                          0.21              0.02              1.00

P(Democrat/Agrees) = P(Democrat & Agess)/P(Agrees) = 0.0736/0.1660 = 0.4434

So,

Answer is:

0.4434

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