In any given year a person may or may not get the flu. Past records show that if

Question

In any given year a person may or may not get the flu. Past records show that if a person has the flu one year then (due to a build up of antibodies) there is a 95 percent chance that they will not get the flu in the following year. If they don't have a flu in a given year then there is a 20 percent chance that they will get the flu the following year. If a person does not have the flu one year, what is the probability that they will also not have the flu 2 years later? In the long run. what proportion of years does a person have the flu?

Explanation / Answer

according to condition

p =0.95    and p =1-0.20 =0.80

so chances for not getting flu

(a) .2*.95 + .8*.8 = 83/100

and for another one in the long run we will have

(b) 19/23 = 0.8260

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