Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July: 70 rooms

Question

Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period:

July: 70 rooms

August: 105 rooms

September: 90 rooms

October: 120 rooms

November: 110 rooms

December: 115 rooms

1. What is the 3-month moving average forecast for January?

2. With alpha = 0.2, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for October? Assume the forecast for July was 80 rooms.

3. Using the exponential smoothing factor 0.3, how many check-ins can be forecasted for January? Assume the forcase for December was 122 rooms.

Explanation / Answer

1) the 3 month moving average will be the mean of october november and december

therefore

(120+110+115)/3 = 115

2)D*S)+(F*(1-S))

Where

D = most recent period’s demand
S = the smoothing factor represented in decimal form
F = the most recent period’s forecast (the output of the smoothing calculation from the previous period).

so accordingly

here s = 0.2, 1-s =0.8, d= 90(september), f=80(july)

put this in formula

90*0.2+80*0.8 =82

3) s=0.3, 1-s= 0.7, d=115(december), f =122(december)

put in formula

115*0.3+122*0.7 = 119.9

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