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In the news article below, the writer says the following: In fact, black folks o

ID: 3439507 • Letter: I

Question

In the news article below, the writer says the following: In fact, black folks only make up about 4 percent of all full time tenured college faculty in America. To put that in context, only 14 out of the 321—that's about 4 percent—of U.S. astronauts have been African American. So in America, if you're black, you've got about as good a chance of being (as astronaut) as you do getting a job as a college professor. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/oped-saida-grundy-twitter-doesnt-always-equal-tenure-n360026 Translate the three sentences into probability notation, using the following definitions: B = person is black A = person is an astronaut P = person is a professor For example, the sentence, "There is a 10% chance that a person is an astronaut," translates as: Pr(A) = 0.1. The sentence, "There is as great a chance of being black as there is of being an astronaut," translates as Pr(B) = Pr(A). (The author uses "black" as a synonym for "African-American," and "full time tenured college faculty" as a synonym for "college professor." Similarly, regard these as synonyms in your analysis.) Translate: "In fact, black folks only make up about 4 percent of all full time tenured college faculty in America." Translate: "To put that in context, only 14 out of the 321—that's about 4 percent—of U.S. astronauts have been African American." Translate: "So in America, if you're black, you've got about as good a chance of being (an astronaut) as you do getting a job as a college professor." Assume that the first two sentences are correct. The author's third sentence does not follow logically from the first two. What is the probability of a black person being an astronaut? What is the probability of a black person being a college professor? You may find the following information helpful. Number of African-Americans in the US: 41 million Number of people in the US: 310 million Number of professors in the US: 1.3 million Number of workers in the US: 145 million In the news article below, the writer says the following: In fact, black folks only make up about 4 percent of all full time tenured college faculty in America. To put that in context, only 14 out of the 321—that's about 4 percent—of U.S. astronauts have been African American. So in America, if you're black, you've got about as good a chance of being (as astronaut) as you do getting a job as a college professor. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/oped-saida-grundy-twitter-doesnt-always-equal-tenure-n360026 Translate the three sentences into probability notation, using the following definitions: B = person is black A = person is an astronaut P = person is a professor For example, the sentence, "There is a 10% chance that a person is an astronaut," translates as: Pr(A) = 0.1. The sentence, "There is as great a chance of being black as there is of being an astronaut," translates as Pr(B) = Pr(A). (The author uses "black" as a synonym for "African-American," and "full time tenured college faculty" as a synonym for "college professor." Similarly, regard these as synonyms in your analysis.) Translate: "In fact, black folks only make up about 4 percent of all full time tenured college faculty in America." Translate: "To put that in context, only 14 out of the 321—that's about 4 percent—of U.S. astronauts have been African American." Translate: "So in America, if you're black, you've got about as good a chance of being (an astronaut) as you do getting a job as a college professor." Assume that the first two sentences are correct. The author's third sentence does not follow logically from the first two. What is the probability of a black person being an astronaut? What is the probability of a black person being a college professor? You may find the following information helpful. Number of African-Americans in the US: 41 million Number of people in the US: 310 million Number of professors in the US: 1.3 million Number of workers in the US: 145 million

Explanation / Answer

Translate: "In fact, black folks only make up about 4 percent of all full time tenured college faculty in America."

P(B) = 0.04 P(P)

Translate: "So in America, if you're black, you've got about as good a chance of being (an astronaut) as you do getting a job as a college professor."

P( A/ B ) =P( P/B)

Translate: "To put that in context, only 14 out of the 321—that's about 4 percent—of U.S. astronauts have been African American."

P( A/B) = 0.04

What is the probability of a black person being an astronaut?

P= 41/ 310 = 0.132258

What is the probability of a black person being a college professor?

P = 1,300/41,000 =0.0317

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