Monty Hall Pretend that you are downtown: a sidewalk conman is playing the famou

Question

Monty Hall

Pretend that you are downtown: a sidewalk conman is playing the famous shell game, and you decide to play the game. In this game, there is one pea placed under one of three shells. The man will show you where the pea is, but then he mixes the three shells up very quickly so that you can’t keep track of where the pea is. You pick one shell, and before he tells you if you are a winner or not, he turns over one shell to reveal that the pea is not there. Now he asks you if you want to stick with the shell you have or pick the remaining shell. What should you do? Why?

Explanation / Answer

I should stick with the shell that I have already chosen. The purpose of the game for the man is such that I should be choosing the incorrect shell. Thus, in order to create a point of doubt in my mind and playing with my head, he would ask me that question. This would create a question in my mind such that it would divert my mind to the empty shell and compel me to think that my choice would be incorrect, such that I would change my answer. In order create further doubt in my mind, he would repeatedly ask me if I would want to change the my answer. Hence, I should not be changing my answer.

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