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The manager at a convenience store wants to forecast sales for an item THIS WEEK

ID: 361300 • Letter: T

Question

The manager at a convenience store wants to forecast sales for an item THIS WEEK based on the following historical data:

WEEK

ACTUAL SALES

(Number of units sold)

Six weeks ago

140

Five weeks ago

280

Four weeks ago

420

Three weeks ago

560

Two weeks ago

700

One week ago

840

THIS WEEK

NOT KNOWN

Determine the sales forecast for THIS WEEK using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant, = 0.3 and the sales forecast for three weeks ago = 550 units.

Select one:

a. 667.97 units

b. 666.97 units

c. 669.97 units

d. 665.97 units

e. 668.97 units

WEEK

ACTUAL SALES

(Number of units sold)

Six weeks ago

140

Five weeks ago

280

Four weeks ago

420

Three weeks ago

560

Two weeks ago

700

One week ago

840

THIS WEEK

NOT KNOWN

Explanation / Answer

Formula for Forecast under exponential smoothing :

Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1

Ft = Forecast for period t

Ft-1 = Forecast for period t-1

Alpha = Smoothing constant = 0.3

Therefore,

Ft = 0.3 x At-1 + 0.7x Ft-1

Given is:

Forecast for “Three weeks ago” = 550 units

Accordingly forecaast for subsequent weeks and upto this week is given as per above formula “

Period

Actual sales

Forecast

3 weeks ago

560

550

2 weeks ago

700

553

1 week ago

840

597.1

This week

669.97

Period

Actual sales

Forecast

3 weeks ago

560

550

2 weeks ago

700

553

1 week ago

840

597.1

This week

669.97