The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by t
ID: 446461 • Letter: T
Question
The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by telephone service representative for a company they have subcontracted with. The number of mistakes for the past several months appears in this table along with forecasts for errors made with different forecasting techniques. The column labeled Exponential was created using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.30 The column labeled MA is forecast using a moving average of three periods. Using the table above, what is the mean absolute percent error for moths 6-10 using the exponential smoothing forecasts? Less than 22% Greater than 20% greater than or equal to 22% but less than 24% greater than or equal to 24% but less than 26%Explanation / Answer
A. Less than 22%
Month(n) Mistakes Exponential Forecast Error = Actual - forecast Abs(Forecast Error) Cumulative Abs(Forecast Error) MAD = (Cumulative Absolute value of forecast error / n) cumulative forecast error (Forecast error)^2 Cumulative (Forecast Error)^2 MSE = Cumulative (forecast Error)^2 / n Absolute percentage Error = (Absolute error / Actual)*100 cumulative absolute percentage error Mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) = (Cumulative absolute percentage error / n) 1 55 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2 61 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 71 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4 77 71.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5 88 73.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6 100 77.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 3.83 23.00 529.00 529.00 88.17 23.00% 23.00% 4.60% 7 109 84.00 25.00 25.00 48.00 6.86 48.00 625.00 1154.00 164.86 22.94% 45.94% 9.19% 8 122 92.00 30.00 30.00 78.00 9.75 78.00 900.00 2054.00 256.75 24.59% 70.53% 14.11% 9 126 101.00 25.00 25.00 103.00 11.44 103.00 625.00 2679.00 297.67 19.84% 90.37% 18.07% 10 126 108.00 18.00 18.00 121.00 12.10 121.00 324.00 3003.00 300.30 14.29% 104.65% 20.93%Related Questions
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