In technical analysis project you will employ a weight of the evidence methodolo
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Question
In technical analysis project you will employ a weight of the evidence methodology, evaluating each of four stocks against four technical indicators: MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands and On-Balance volume. With each indicator, your team will try to determine whether the signal is bullish or bearish. I will give several four stock lists in class from which you will choose one four stock list to analyze.
In designing you analysis, a table similar to the one below might be helpful:
MACD
RSI
OBV
Ticker
Price Trend
Crossover
Diverge/Confirm MACD
Diverge/Confirm Histogram
Overbought/oversold
Diverge/Confirm
Diverge/Confirm
MNST
TAP
BUD
PEP
To decide if an indicator is confirming or diverging, remember there could be four different outcomes when comparing the price trend with the indicator trend and associated bullish or bearish classification. Here they are:
Price trend make higher highs and the indicator is also making higher highs confirming bullish
Price trend make higher highs and the indicator is making lower highs diverging bearish
Price trend make lower lows and the indicator is also making lower lows confirming bearish
Price trend make lower lows and the indicator is making higher lows diverging bullish
To start your analysis, you will determine the price trend of the stock. The three choices are uptrend (bullish), down trend (bearish) or horizontal (no trend).
For the MACD analysis, you will look for two signals: crossover and divergence/confirmation.
For crossover:
1. If the MACD has recently crossed over the signal line from below, this is a bullish signal. Write bullish in the crossover column.
2. If the MACD has recently crossed over the signal line from above, this is a bearish signal. Write bearish in the crossover column.
3. If there hasn’t been a crossover recently, don’t write anything in the crossover cell.
For the MACD divergence/ confirmation signal, you will compare the recent slope of the MACD or histogram to the recent price trend of the stock. The scenarios and signal are as follows:
1. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the MACD/histogram is up, then this is bullish.
2. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the MACD/histogram is flat to down, then this is bearish.
3. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the MACD/histogram is down, then this is bearish.
4. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the MACD/histogram is up, then this is bullish.
For the RSI analysis, there are two signals to look for: overbought/oversold and divergence/confirmation.
For the overbought/oversold signal:
1. If RSI > 70, the stock is overbought and the signal is bearish
2. If RSI < 30, the stock is oversold and the signal is bullish
3. If the RSI is between 30 and 70, don’t write anything in this cell
For the RSI divergence/ confirmation signal, you will compare the recent slope of the RSI to the recent price trend of the stock. The scenarios and signal are as follows:
1. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the RSI is up, then this is bullish.
2. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the RSI is flat to down, then this is bearish.
3. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the RSI is down, then this is bearish.
4. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the RSI is up, then this is bullish.
For On-Balanced Volume, you will look for a divergence/ confirmation signal. You will compare the recent slope of the OBV to the recent price trend of the stock. The scenarios and signal are as follows:
1. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the OBV is up, then this is bullish.
2. If the stock trend is up and the slope of the OBV is flat to down, then this is bearish.
3. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the OBV is down, then this is bearish.
4. If the stock trend is down and the slope of the OBV is up, then this is bullish.
For your write-up, I want to see a table similar to the one above that compares the four stocks. You will then add up the total number of bullish and bearish signals including the price trend. You will recommend the one stock from the four that you would buy and the one stock from the four that you will sell (or short). The following guidelines will help you determine the buy and sell:
1. The buy is the stock with either:
a. The highest number of bullish signals or
b. The least number of bearish signals
2. The sell is the stock with either:
a. The highest number of bearish signals or
b. The least number of bullish signals
MACD
RSI
OBV
Ticker
Price Trend
Crossover
Diverge/Confirm MACD
Diverge/Confirm Histogram
Overbought/oversold
Diverge/Confirm
Diverge/Confirm
MNST
TAP
BUD
PEP
Explanation / Answer
don`t think that by closing borders, would control the epidemic as closing borders would create many other problems ,paradoxically make things much worse in the sense that" you can’t get supplies in, you can’t get help in, you can’t get the kinds of things in there that we need to contain the epidemic.”
Despite this, health and development experts are unanimous that a ban on outward air travel would be disastrous. Privately, UN officials warn that such a move could lead to a panicked rush of people across land borders, where unlike air passengers their movements cannot be traced. It could also cause further economic damage to the countries, threatening the civil order essential to fighting the disease.
So if neither exit nor entry screening works, why not simply stop anyone leaving the countries while we get the epidemic under control?
The first reason is that travel bans are unlikely to be very effective. Steep reductions in flights after the 9/11 bombings only delayed the subsequent flu season, and closing borders to the HIV-positive in the 1980s did not slow the HIV pandemic.
In both cases, that was because people carrying the infection still managed to get through, and that is likely now.
Moreover, a travel ban would further reduce commercial flights to the region. This could discourage badly needed foreign healthcare workers from volunteering, as with no military airlift planned, they need commercial flights to get home.
This would be catastrophic, preventing any further organised effort to fight the infection. Moreover, a collapse in food distribution or public safety could send a flood of refugees across land borders, for eg carrying Ebola to nearby, impoverished countries.
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