Given the series of demand data below Period Demand 5 7 9 1 38 33 50 4619 4 40 4
ID: 371072 • Letter: G
Question
Given the series of demand data below Period Demand 5 7 9 1 38 33 50 4619 4 40 412640 a. Calculate the forecasts for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models with n = 2, n = 4, and n = 6- (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 1 decimal place.) eek n- n=4 n=6 30.0 40.5 40.5 33.5 33.0 390 36.5 35.3 37.0 368 37.8 30.2 39.5 35.5 31.0 10 b-1. Calculate the bias and MAD for each set of forecasts. (Negative answers should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 1 decimal place.) Moving Average Forecast 0.6 7.9 0.2 4.5 Bias 1.0 MAD b-2. Which moving average model is best with respect to MAD? week moving averageExplanation / Answer
Below table which is self explanatory calculates Gap and Absolute deviation for each set of data:
For n = 2
For n = 4
For n = 6
Week
Demand
Forecast ( n = 2 )
Forecast ( n = 4 )
Forecast ( n = 6)
Gap = Demand – Forecast
Absolute Deviation
Gap = Demand - Forecast
Absolute Deviation
Gap = Demand - Forecast
Absolute Deviation
1
38
2
33
3
50
4
46
5
19
6
41
7
40
30.0
39.0
37.8
10.0
10
1.0
1.0
2.2
2.2
8
41
40.5
36.5
38.2
0.5
0.5
4.5
4.5
2.8
2.8
9
26
40.5
35.3
39.5
-14.5
14.5
-9.3
9.3
-13.5
13.5
10
40
33.5
37.0
35.5
6.5
6.5
3.0
3.0
4.5
4.5
11
33.0
36.8
34.5
Total:
2.5
31.5
-0.8
17.8
-4.0
23.0
It is to be noted that forecast for n = 6 will be :
Ft = ( Demand.t-1 + Demand.t-2 + Demand.t-3 + Demand.t-4 + Demand.t-5 + Demand.t-6) / 6
Ft = Forecast for period t
Demand t-1 = Demand for period t-1
Demand.t-2 = demand for period t-2 etc
Thus for n = 2:
Bias = Sum of Gaps/ 4 = 2.5/4 = 0.625 ( 0.6 rounded to 1 decimal point)
MAD = Sum of Absolute deviations/ 4 = 31.5 / 4 = 7.875 ( 7.9 rounded to 1 decimal place )
For n = 4:
Bias = Sum of Gaps/ 4 = - 0.8/4 = - 0.2
MAD = Sum of Absolute deviations/ 4 = 17.8/4 = 4.45 ( 4.5 rounded to 1 decimal place)
For n = 6:
Bias = Sum of Gaps/ 4 = - 4/4 = - 1
MAD = Sum of Absolute deviations/ 4 = 23 / 4 = 5.75 ( 5.8 rounded to 1 decimal place )
MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST
N = 2
N = 4
N = 6
Bias
0.6
- 0.2
-1
MAD
7.9
4.5
5.8
For n = 2
For n = 4
For n = 6
Week
Demand
Forecast ( n = 2 )
Forecast ( n = 4 )
Forecast ( n = 6)
Gap = Demand – Forecast
Absolute Deviation
Gap = Demand - Forecast
Absolute Deviation
Gap = Demand - Forecast
Absolute Deviation
1
38
2
33
3
50
4
46
5
19
6
41
7
40
30.0
39.0
37.8
10.0
10
1.0
1.0
2.2
2.2
8
41
40.5
36.5
38.2
0.5
0.5
4.5
4.5
2.8
2.8
9
26
40.5
35.3
39.5
-14.5
14.5
-9.3
9.3
-13.5
13.5
10
40
33.5
37.0
35.5
6.5
6.5
3.0
3.0
4.5
4.5
11
33.0
36.8
34.5
Total:
2.5
31.5
-0.8
17.8
-4.0
23.0
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