Given the series of demand data below Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand: 43 31

Question

Given the series of demand data below

Period:     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9     10

Demand: 43   31   52    44   23    48   40   39    30    40

Calculated forecasts for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models with n=2, n=4, n=6

week          n=2       n=4       n=6

7              35.4       41.9      40.1

8               44        38.7       39.6

9              39.4       37.4       41

10            34.4       39.2       37.2

11             35         37.2      36.6

Calculate the bias and MAD for each set of forecasts

                Moving Average Forecast

                n=2          n=4          n=6

Bias            _             _              _

MAD           _             _              _

Please explain how you got the answers...

Explanation / Answer

2)Calculate the bias and MAD for each set of forecasts

bias =37.64+38.88+38.9=115.42

average bias=38.47

MAD=(|38.47-37.64|+|38.47-38.88|+|38.47-38.9|)/3=0.5566

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