a. Probability for graduation time = 0.6873 b. Probability at the end of week 15

Question

a. Probability for graduation time = 0.6873

b. Probability at the end of week 15 = 0.3983

c. Probability at the end of week 13 = 0.0203

Solution:

z = Specified time Path mean / Path standard deviation

Path ExpectedDuration Std.Dev. z16 z15 z13
A 10 1.1 5.45 4.55 2.73
B 8 1.414 5.66 4.95 3.54
C 12 1 4 3 1
D 15 1.7 0.59 0 -1.18
E 14 1.2 1.67 0.83 -0.83

Further,

a. Prob. (T 16) = 1 × 1 × 1 × 0.7224 × 0.9525 = 0.6881


b. Prob. (T 15) = 1 × 1 × 0.9987 × 0.50 × 0.7967 = 0.3978


c. Prob. (T 13) = 0.9968 × 1 × 0.8413 × 0.1190 × 0.2033 = 0.0203

Explanation / Answer

table b: http://lectures.mhhe.com/connect/0073525251/tables/P12-19.jpg

table b1: http://lectures.mhhe.com/connect/0073525251/tables/Table%20B.JPG

The new director of special events at a large university has decided to completely revamp graduation ceremonies. Toward that end, a PERT chart of the major activities has been developed. The chart has five paths with expected completion times and variances as shown in the table. Graduation day is 16 weeks from novw. Use Table B and Table B1. Expected Duration (weeks) Variance 1.21 2.00 1.00 2.89 1.44 Path 10 12 15 Assuming the project begins now, what is the probability that the project will be completed before: (Round your z-value to 2 decimal places and all intermediate probabilities to 4 decimal places. Round your final answers to 4 decimal places.) a. Graduation time? Probability for graduation time b. The end of week 15? Probability at the end of week 15 c. The end of week 13? Probability at the end of week 13

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse A
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.