here is the data...i put it on a excel on my dropbox account. you can access it
ID: 3762694 • Letter: H
Question
here is the data...i put it on a excel on my dropbox account. you can access it via this link
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ufhdno6gvk9nyi/sold_cust.xls?dl=0
Determine the correlation between the unadjusted and the adjusted monthly data (=CORREL(unadjust., adjust.) in Excel), and produce scatterplots (with connectors) of both.
b. Do you think making a seasonal adjustment will be useful, given what you observe at this point?
c. Run four regressions:
1) seasonally unadjusted monthly as the dependent, and t and t2 as the independents,
2) seasonally unadjusted monthly as the dependent, and t, t2, and D as the independents,
3) seasonally adjusted monthly as the dependent, and t and t2 as the independents, and
4) seasonally adjusted monthly as the dependent, and t, t2, and D as the independents.
d.Discuss your findings, and determine which of the four models is best for forecasting new home sales.
e.State the equation that would be used to forecast sales.
Explanation / Answer
b)
Note that this system of adjustment follows the golden rule at least for the historical data; by the end of each calendar year, we have attributed the correct overall number of sales, spread out over the months. However, if we start predicting July sales from what we’ve seen from home sales from January to March, taking into account these adjustments, we will also be tacitly assuming an overall number of sales for the year, and the golden rule will probably not hold. This is just another way to say that we won’t really know how many home sales have occurred in a given year until the year is over, so duh. But it’s not hard to believe that knowing these numbers is pretty useful if you want to make a ballpark estimate of the yearly rate of home sales and it’s only March.
e)
monthly sales / percentage of total sales expressed as a decimal = annual sales forecast
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