Two project managers, Adam and Brenda, both believe that it is best to express t
ID: 387553 • Letter: T
Question
Two project managers, Adam and Brenda, both believe that it is best to express the duraton of activites the triangular distribution. However, they disagree how to interpret the resulting total time of the project, expressed as the percentage of time one would expect the project to complete by a given time Adam thinks it should be with the triangular distribution (based on the sums of the 3 parameters), while Brenda prefers the normal. They enlist a colleague to arbitrate, who then uses the following sample data to decide which of the two is the more risk averse. Show your calculatons and state whether Adam or Brenda is the more risk averse and give your reason.
Probability of completion by45 More Risk Averse Reason Activity Best Most likely Worst 3 6 10 4 9 3 5 12 13 15Explanation / Answer
Triangluar distribution Forumla = (Worst+Best+Most Likely)/3.
Add duration of each scenario
Best = 31, Most Likely = 43, Worst = 54
Apply triangular distribution Forumla = (54 + 31 + 43)/3 = 42.6
Normal Distribution = (W+B+4 X ML) / 6 = (54 + 31 + 4 X 43) / 6 = 42.8
While both values comes to 43. I would say Brenda is more risk averse as the noral distribution is close to 43 and prefered by project managers
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