Week Actual No. of Patients 85 2 96 79 84 93 4 6 Clinic administrator Marc Schni
ID: 393158 • Letter: W
Question
Week Actual No. of Patients 85 2 96 79 84 93 4 6 Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.250 one period ago, 0.250 two periods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? The value of the forecast is patients (round your response to two decimal places). b) If instead the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10, respectively, how would the forecast change? OA. The value of the forecast will remain the same. O B. The value of the forecast will decrease O C. The value of the forecast will increase. c) What if the weights were 0.50, 0.20, 0.20, and 0.10, respectively? Now what is the forecast for week 7? The value of the forecast is patients (round your response to two decimal places).Explanation / Answer
Answer to question a :
Based on the weights provided ,
Forecast for week 7
= 0.333 x Actual number of patients during week 6 + 0.250 x Actual number of patients during week 5 + 0.250 x Actual number of patients during week 4 + 0.167 x Actual number of patients during week 3
= 0.333 x 93 + 0.250 x 84 + 0.250 x 79 + 0.167 x 96
= 30.969 + 21 + 19.75 + 16.032
= 87.751 ( 87.75 rounded to 2 decimal place )
The value of forecast is 87.75 patients
Answer to question b :
Value of total weights = 20 + 15 + 15 + 10 = 60
Therefore, relative weightage of 20 = 20/60 = 0.333
Relative weightage of second one i.e 15 = 15/60 = 0.25
Relative weightage of third one i.e. 15 = 15/60 = 0.25
Relative weightage of 4th one i.e 10 = 10/60 = 0.167
As it can be seen, the derived relative weights are same as what has been provided in problem # a . Therefore , forecast will not change and value of forecasts would remain same .
Answer : A ) The value of the forecast will remain same
Answer to question c :
With the revised weights of 0.50 , 0.20,0.20 and 0.10 ,
Forecast for week 7
= 0.50 x Number of patients for week 6 + 0.20 x Number of patients for week 5 + 0.20 x Number of patients for week 4 + 0.10 x Number of patients for week 3
= 0.50 x 93 + 0.20 x 84 + 0.20 x 79 + 0.10 x 96
= 46.5 + 16.80 + 15.80 + 9.6
= 88.7
The value of the forecast = 88.70 patients
The value of forecast is 87.75 patients
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