exercise in Forecasting How many schools (and students) will be attending? Hampt
ID: 399923 • Letter: E
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exercise in Forecasting How many schools (and students) will be attending? Hampton Jazz Festival Big Band) in the Kibbie Dome? a How many will attend Saturday night's concert? (Lionel a How many hot dogs will Sodexo cook Friday and Saturday What should Icharge for my hotel rooms during the busy weekend? Is there a threshold? a How much more should Casa Lopez be ordering for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday? Wh at will the economic impact be to the city of Moscow? Select one or two and write a double-spaced paper telling what you forecasted and how you camie up with the foreast you made. LO 3.16Explanation / Answer
My school arranges the annual city sports meet and it is the most coveted function with various schools from across the city participating. The winners of the sports meet get a chance to play in the zonal level and on successful participation in the zonal sports meet the players get a chance to play for the country. This indicates the importance of the city sports meets conducted by our school. I am selected as the student coordinator for this year sports meet and have to forecast the number of schools and students attending the function.
Forecasting is the main basis for decision making and allows planning the future to a certain extent. I use time series analysis and WHAT-IF analysis methods of forecasting to arrive at the estimated schools and students participating in the city sports meet.
My first step is to gather data on the sports meet. I get access to the past three to five years data on the sports meet from my school records. The registration forms are available in the sports event records. To make thing easy for me, I get access to the electronic data of the participants from various schools for the past two years after the school automation program was successfully implemented. I keep these two years data as the base but the participant entries go in thousands. Information management becomes a problem with this huge database. I arrived at the number of student participants from the registration data and the student participant count for the two years is successfully arrived (Assume 1500 for year 1 and 2000 for year 2). To arrive at the number of schools, I use excel spreadsheets to evaluate the data. I use filter option on the school column in the student registration data and arrive at the number of schools participated in the event (Assume 78 schools in the year 1 and 84 schools in year 2). Based on analyzing this data, I see an increasing trend in the number of schools and students participating in the sports event. I now use time series analysis to forecast the number of schools to 90 and student participants to be 2200 for this year.
My second step is contingency planning for the sports event. I use WHAT-IF analysis to forecast the contingencies involved in the student participation in the annual sports meet. There are two possible scenarios here. One is the student count can reduce and the other student count can increase. My analysis here is what if the student count reduces to 1000 this year and what if the student count increases to 3000 this year. Accordingly, contingency plans will be developed to adjust the change.
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