The following gives the number of pints of blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in th
ID: 409777 • Letter: T
Question
The following gives the number of pints of blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks:
a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3 week moving average.
b. Use a 3 week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3 and .6 using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12.
c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and = .2.
Week of Prints used August 31 360 September 7 389 September 14 410 September 21 381 September 28 368 October 5 374Explanation / Answer
Week of
Prints used
August 31
360
September 7
389
September 14
410
September 21
381
September 28
368
October 5
374
Answer A:-
For three week moving average, we will take the average of latest three month’s average:-
Forecast for October 12:- (374+368+381)/3 = 374.33
Answer B:-
3 week weighted moving average, Forecast for October 12:- (374*0.6+368 *0.3+381 *.01)/(0.6+0.3+0.1) = 372.9
Answer C:-
Week of
Prints used
Forecast
August 31
360
360
September 7
389
360
September 14
410
365.8
September 21
381
374.64
September 28
368
375.91
October 5
374
374.33
Exponential smoothing forecasting = Ft = Ft-1 +(At-1-Ft-1)
In the question, Ft-1 =360 =0.2 At-1=360
Exponential smoothing forecasting for Sept 7=360+0.2(360-360) =360
Exponential smoothing forecasting for Sept 14=360+0.2(389-360) =365.8
Exponential smoothing forecasting for Sept 21=365.8+ 0.2(410-365.8) =374.64
Exponential smoothing forecasting for Sept 28=374.64+ 0.2(381-374.64) =375.91
Exponential smoothing forecasting for October 5=375.91+0.2(368-375.91) =374.33
Exponential smoothing forecasting for October 12=374.33+0.2(374-374.33) =374.264
So answer is:- 374.264
Week of
Prints used
August 31
360
September 7
389
September 14
410
September 21
381
September 28
368
October 5
374
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