A police station had to deploy a police officer for an emergency multiple times
ID: 410107 • Letter: A
Question
A police station had to deploy a police officer for an emergency multiple times in the last four evenings. The table below shows the number of emergencies each evening. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Weekday Number of calls each day Forecast for tomorrow (calls) 10 Monday 7 Tuesday 2 Wednesday 7 Thursday 11 a. Complete the "Forecast for tomorrow" column in the table above. Use an exponential smoothing forecasting approach, with =0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10. (Round your answer to 3 decimal places.) b. What would be their forecast for Friday using the same exponential smoothing forecasting approach?
Explanation / Answer
A.
Data as per the given question is as follows:
Weekdays
Number of calls each day
Forecast for tomorrow
10
Monday
7
Tuesday
2
Wednesday
7
Thursday
11
EMA Forecast for today = (calls of yesterday – EMA for yesterday)* + EMA for yesterday
EMA for Tuesday = (7-10)*.2 + 10 = 9.4
EMA for Wednesday = (2-9.4)*.2 + 9.4 = 7.92
EMA for Thursday = (7-7.92)*.2 + 7.92 = 7.736
EMA for Friday = (11-7.736)*.2 + 7.736 = 8.389
So, table prepared is as follows:
Weekdays
Number of calls each day
Forecast for tomorrow
10
Monday
7
9.4
Tuesday
2
7.92
Wednesday
7
7.736
Thursday
11
8.389
B.
EMA forecast for Friday = (11-7.736)*.2 + 7.736 = 8.389
Weekdays
Number of calls each day
Forecast for tomorrow
10
Monday
7
Tuesday
2
Wednesday
7
Thursday
11
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