ii)A 3-month moving average. iii)A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2
ID: 415689 • Letter: I
Question
ii)A 3-month moving average.
iii)A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.
iv)Exponential smoothing using an = .3 and a September forecast of 18.
v)A trend projection.
c)With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales?
The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Month Jan Feb Mar Ap May Jun Jul Aug Sept O Nov Dec Sales 19 20 1714 15 15 16 17 22 20 21 24 This exercise contains only parts b and c b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method sales (round your response to a whole number).Explanation / Answer
Months
Sales
JAN
19
FEB
20
MARCH
17
APRIL
14
MAY
15
JUNE
15
JULY
16
AUG
17
SEP
22
OCT
20
NOV
21
DEC
24
Answer:- Naïve Method:- In Naïve method, the sales of last period is taken as the forecasted value of next period. Thus sales of Jan will be=24
Answer:- 3 month moving average:- (20+21+24)/3=21.67
Answer:- (0.3*24 +0.2*21 +0.2*20 +0.1*22+ 0.1*17+ 0.1*16) / (0.3+0.2+0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1) =20.9
Answer:-
Month
Actual Sales
Forecast
SEP
22
18
OCT
20
19.2
NOV
21
19.44
DEC
24
19.91
Exponential smoothing forecasting = Ft = Ft-1 +(At-1-Ft-1)
Forecast for OCT:- 18+0.3(22-18) =19.2
Forecast for NOV:- 19.2+0.3(20-19.2) =19.44
Forecast for DEC:- 19.44+0.3(21-19.44) =19.91
Forecast for JAN:- 19.91+0.3(24-19.91) =21.12
So correct answer :- 21.12
Months
Sales
JAN
19
FEB
20
MARCH
17
APRIL
14
MAY
15
JUNE
15
JULY
16
AUG
17
SEP
22
OCT
20
NOV
21
DEC
24
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