Given a simple Project like the one pictured above. Optimistic / Most Likely / P

Question

Given a simple Project like the one pictured above. Optimistic / Most Likely / Pessimist Times were assessed and Path Means and Path Standard Deviations were calculated. For Path 1-2-5 we have a Path Mean = 32 and a Path Standard Deviation = 5. For Path 1-3-4-5 we have a Path Mean = 29 and a Path Standard Deviation = 2. Determine both the Probability that Path 1-2-5 will finish in 32 Days or Less and the Probability that the Project will finish in 32 Days or Less.

Question 3 options:

0.977249938 : 0.977249938

0.5 : 0.466596385

0.788144666 : 0.787961286

0.884930268 : 0.884927259

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0.977249938 : 0.977249938

0.5 : 0.466596385

0.788144666 : 0.787961286

0.884930268 : 0.884927259

Explanation / Answer

Path 1-2-5

Mean = 32, SD = 5

Prob (Complete <= 32) = NORMDIST(32, Mean, SD, TRUE) = NORMDIST(32, 32, 5, TRUE) = 0.50

Path 1-3-4-5

Mean = 29, SD = 2

Prob (Complete <= 32) = NORMDIST(32, 29, 2, TRUE) = 0.933193

Entire project

Prob (Entire Project completes by 32 days) = Prob (1-2-5 completes by 32 days) AND Prob (1-3-4-5 completes by 32 days)

= 0.50 x 0.933193 = 0.466596

So, option 2 is correct.

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