Given a simple Project like the one pictured above. Optimistic / Most Likely / P

Question

Given a simple Project like the one pictured above. Optimistic / Most Likely / Pessimist Times were assessed and Path Means and Path Standard Deviations were calculated. For Path 1-2-5 we have a Path Mean = 29 and a Path Standard Deviation = 3. For Path 1-3-4-5 we have a Path Mean = 32 and a Path Standard Deviation = 4. Determine both the Probability that Path 1-2-5 will finish in 32 Days or Less and the Probability that the Project will finish in 32 Days or Less.

Question 5 options:

0.977249938 : 0.755778443

2-

0.747507533 : 0.299970083

3-

0.990184693 : 0.833086683

4- 0.84134474 : 0.42067237

0.977249938 : 0.755778443

2-

0.747507533 : 0.299970083

3-

0.990184693 : 0.833086683

4- 0.84134474 : 0.42067237

Explanation / Answer

Correct Answer:

D

For path 1-2-5,

Z = (32-29)/3 = 1

At Z = 1, the area covered = .8413

For path 1-3-4-5,

Z = (32-32)/4 = 0

At Z = 0, the area covered = .50

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