Table 15.8 gives the monthly international passenger totals over the last 11 yea
ID: 432932 • Letter: T
Question
Table 15.8 gives the monthly international passenger totals over the last 11 years for an airline company. A plot of these passenger totals reveals an upward trend with increasing seasonal variation, and the natural logarithmic ransformation is ound o best equalize the seasonal vana on see Figure 15.9(a) and b) Figure 15.9 ) gves he MINITAB output o a regression analysis of the monthly international passenger totals by using the model TABLE 15,8 Monthly International Passenger Totals (Thousands of Passengers) AirPass Year Jan. eb. Mar Apr. May Jue ulyAug. Sept. oct. Nov. Dec. 104 132 141 178 193 236 129 135 163 181 121 125 172 183 135 149 178 218 148 170 199 242 136 158 184 118 140 166 194 201 118 126 150 180 196 188 233 277 301 318 114 170 199 230 133 162 191 172 180 196 302 259 234 312 274 237 315 374 267 317 356 362 306 318 355 363 413 465 491 313 305 310 362 337 359 407 463 472 559 source: FAA Statistical Handbook ofan, Atation(several annual Issues). The?data were originally presented by Box and Jenkins(1976). We have updated the stuation In ths exerdse to be more modern.Explanation / Answer
ln y136 = 4.69618 + 0.0103075 x 136 + 0.09583 x 1 = 6.19383
So, y136 = EXP(6.19383) = 489.72 (point estimate)
95% prediction interval: [EXP(6.07366), EXP(6.31400)] i.e. [434.27, 552.25]
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