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The data below consist of the closing price of the common stock of the American

ID: 461352 • Letter: T

Question

The data below consist of the closing price of the common stock of the American Telephone and Telegraph Corporation on 10 recent trading days.

Time(t)

Price

Time(t)

Price

1

$24.10

6

$22.73

2

23.80

7

22.60

3

23.39

8

21.76

4

22.90

9

22.14

5

22.10

10

21.69

Using a five-period moving average, forecast the price of the stock for period 10.

What is the error of the forecast in #1-a?

Using a five-period moving average, forecast the price of the stock for period 11.

Time(t)

Price

Time(t)

Price

1

$24.10

6

$22.73

2

23.80

7

22.60

3

23.39

8

21.76

4

22.90

9

22.14

5

22.10

10

21.69

Explanation / Answer

A forecast for t = 10 will require the previous five prices. MA5 = (22.10 + 22.73 + 22.60 + 21.76 + 22.14/5 = $22.27 Error = Actual - Forecast = 21.69 ? 22.27 = -$0.58 MA5 =( 22.73 + 22.60 + 21.76 + 22.14 + 21.69)/5 = $22.18

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