The Delphi method used for forecasting: A) uses measures that are believed to in
ID: 1103701 • Letter: T
Question
The Delphi method used for forecasting: A) uses measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable that the researcher wishes to forecast. B) uses a panel of experts, whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another, to respond to a sequence of questionnaires. C) obtains forecasts through a comparative analysis with a previous situation. D) uses a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation. In forecasting, what is an index? A) It is a measure that provides a complete forecast. B) It is a time series that does not have trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects but is relatively constant and only exhibits random behavior. C) It is a stream of historical data, such as weekly sales. D) It is a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation. Time-series models may exhibit seasonal effects or cyclical effects. A seasonal effect differs from a cyclical effect in that a seasonal effect: A) is based on analysis of historical time-series data and are predicated on the assumption that the future is an extrapolation of the past. B) describes ups and downs over a time frame such as several years. C) has no trend, is relatively constant, and only exhibits random behavior. D) is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time, typically a year, month, week, or day. If the given time series has a trend and no seasonality, the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series is the ________ model. A) Holt-Winters additive B) Holt-Winters no trend smoothing C) double exponential smoothing D) single exponential smoothing Before launching a new line of toys, Toys Inc. used the method of historical analogy to obtain a forecast. In this scenario, Toys Inc.: A) noted the consumer response to similar previous products to marketing campaigns and used the responses as a basis to predict how the new marketing campaign might fare. B) noted the behavior of its current customers while they use their products. C) used a panel of experts, whose identities were kept confidential from one another, to respond to a sequence of questionnaires. D) used a brainstorming session among a group of experts to draw new ideas. Which of the following is necessary to calculate the variable cost of production for the company to develop a profit model? A) quantity of item sold B) unit sale price C) fixed cost of production D) quantity of item produced In which of the following ways does demand influence profit? A) It reduces the unit cost of production. B) It helps in reducing the variable cost of production. C) It predicts how many units will be sold. D) It directly influences the fixed cost of production. In the equation to calculate the economic value of a customer, V = R × F × M / D, how is the value for F estimated? A) It is estimated to be the total number of purchases the customer has made. B) It is estimated to be the purchase frequency per year. C) It is estimated to be the number of customers defecting per year. D) It is estimated to be the number of visits of the customer without actually spending on an item. ________ is the term used by Analytic Solver Platform for systematic methods of "what-if" study. A) Scenario B) Parametric sensitivity analysis C) Goal Seek D) Validity
Explanation / Answer
Delphi Method Forecasting
Answer : [B] Uses panel of experts whose identities are kept confidential from one another to respond to a squence of questionnaires.
Justification: Delphi method is a communication technique developed for forecasting the outcomes and probabilties from a desired project.
The experts answer questionnaires in multiple rounds and they are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light ofthe replies of other members of panels.
In forecasting what is index
Answer[c] Its a stream of historical data such as weekly sales.
Justification: when a forecasting tool is used to identify demand for various commodities or goods in a market for short/long term then in this case Index is based on statics of previous years that highlights of the consumption.
Time-series models may exhibit seasonal effects or cyclical effects
Answer : [D] is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time, typically a year, month, week, or day.
Justification : Seasonal effects will showcase a short term repetitive behaviour.
If the given time series has a trend and no seasonality the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of time series is :
Answer : [D] Single exponential smoothing.
Justification : It produce forecast when time series has a trend but no cyclical and seasonal effects.
Method of historical Analogy to obtain a forecast
Answer [A] Noted the consumer response to similar previous products to marketing campaigns and used the responses as a basis to predict how the new marketing campaigm might fare.
Justification : Historical analogy is a technique to identify a sales ratio. behaviour in past which is parallel to its present sitaution.
Calculate variable cost of production for the company to develop a profit model.
Answer [D] Quantity of items produced in which following ways does demand influence profit
which helps in
Answer [B] Reducing the variable cost of production.
Economic value of a customer
Answer [B] It is estimated to be the purchase frequency per year.
Term used by analytic solver for systematic methods of what if study :
Answer [B] Parametric sesitivity analysis
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