Consider the plot of the total number E of Ebola cases in West Africa reported t

Question

Consider the plot of the total number E of Ebola cases in West Africa reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from April 1, 2014, through December 1, 2015.

Ebola Cases in West Africa

A logistic fit for these data is given by

E =

,

where t is the time in months since April 1, 2014. Below, we have added the graph of this model.

Logistic Graph Added

(a)

Does the first plot, "Ebola Cases in West Africa," show a continuing epidemic or a health crisis that is under control by December 2015?

Because the data points appear to be  ---Select--- growing without bound leveling off  , they show a health crisis that is  ---Select--- a continuing epidemic under control .

(b)

According to the model, what was the total number of cases when the disease was spreading at the fastest rate? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

cases

(c)

Use the crossing-graphs method to determine when the disease was growing at the fastest rate. Round your answer, in months after April 1, 2014, to one decimal place.

months

Explanation / Answer

The data points are showing a trend of high initial growth which then levels off by the end of 2015. Though the cases are at high levels in 2015 they do not show any clear increase. so it can be said that the number of cases are still high which indicates a health crisis for sure . But there is no increase in number of cases which means the epidemic is under control. This is so because it is a communicable disease and without any successful intervention we would have only seen exponentially increase in number of cases. So even though we do not see a decline, there is enough evidence to show the crisis is under control.

The disease was spreading the fastest in the months of sept- oct 2014. This is clearly seen in the graph where slope is first increasing, reaching its max in sept-oct and then started to decline.

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