Discuss the ramifications of China\'s \"one-child policy\" with a friend or clas

Question

Discuss the ramifications of China's "one-child policy" with a friend or classmate. Do the problems caused by rapid population growth justify harsh measures to limit births? What might the world situation be like today if China had a population of 2 billion people?
Discuss the ramifications of China's "one-child policy" with a friend or classmate. Do the problems caused by rapid population growth justify harsh measures to limit births? What might the world situation be like today if China had a population of 2 billion people?

Explanation / Answer

Ramifications of China's "one-child policy"

China's ambitious efforts to control its population have been effective, for the annual growth rate declined from 2.3% to 1.4% between 1971-81. The government's goal is to keep the population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000 and either maintain that as a stable population, or, ideally, to reduce the population to 700 million, deemed the optimum population that China's natural resources can sustain. The government is using a 1 child policy as a means of achieving this goal. It is apparent that the 1 child policy will cause significant changes in the society's demographic structure and contribute to social stress. The age structure is being altered, the ratio of males to females reflects a desire for the only child to be a son, and there are conflicts between the new economic policy and the call for limits on the number of children. The state is powerful enough to enforce its policy in urban areas but will most likely need to be content with a 2-child compromise in the countryside. Like most developing countries, China has a young population now. In 1980, 36% of the people were 14 years old or younger, whereas only 5% of the population were 65 and older. Each Chinese worker supported .93 dependents (the dependency ratio), mostly young children. The economy is geared to a young population, and the government must provide pediatric medical care, day care, and schools. If Chinese couples reduce their family size to slightly more than 1.5 children per couple, the dependency ratio will improve initially as the percentage of workers increases until 2015. After that a large percentage of workers would reach retirement age. The Chinese government promises increased retirement benefits for retirees and community aid to elderly with no family to support them. Statistics show that currently only 10% of the urban population is covered by pensions and only 1% of men and women of retirement age in rural areas receive community aid. To increase the number of people assisted would be expensive to both the state and local areas, yet the government is choosing to ignore the ramifications of the graying of Chinese society. Government officials argue that the fertility policy will return to 2 children before the age structure becomes too skewed. Despite official propaganda pronouncing men and women equal in all respects, boys are more respected, carry on the family line, and are economically more viable than girls. By tradition, elderly parents live with their male children. The statistical probabilities are that 1/2 of China's couples will have sons, but surveys find that only 2% of couples would be satisfied to have only a daughter and Chinese sex ratios already indicate this preference. Horrifying stories about infanticide appear regularly in the press. As affluence grows among the peasantry, it is difficult to predict whether the peasants will adhere to the 1 child policy.

Impact on population growth (rapid population growth )
The fertility rate (mean number of children/woman) decreased from 2.9 in 1979 to 1.7 in 2004 . This has resulted in urban families with predominantly one child and rural families with predominantly two children.

However, the fertility rate had already decreased from 5.9 in 1970 to 2.1 in 1979 under the voluntary “late, long, few” policy of postponed childbearing, greater spacing between children, and fewer children. With the implementation of the one-child policy, there was a further fall to 1.7 by 1995.

The sex ratio
The sex ratio (male : female live births) is 1.03 to 1.07 in industrialised countries. In China, this ratio has increased from 1.06 in 1979, to 1.11 in 1988 and 1.17 in 2001, with even higher ratios in rural areas. In rural areas, the sex ratio is 1.05 for the first birth and rises steeply subsequently. In urban areas, the sex ratio is 1.13 for the first birth and peaks at 1.30 for the second birth showing that some urban Chinese make the choice to perform sex selection with the first pregnancy, since they are allowed only one child. In rural areas, most couples are permitted to have a second child, especially if the first is female. So if the second (or subsequent) child is female, the pregnancy often “disappears”, allowing the couple to have another child in an attempt to have a son.

It is believed that sex-selective abortion and non-registrationa of female births account for the increased sex ratio. Sex-selective abortion is illegal but is known to be widely carried out, helped by a burgeoning private sector. Although female infanticide is probably very rare now, less aggressive treatment of sick female infants does occur.

THE WORLD SITUATION BE LIKE TODAYIF CHINA HAD A POPULTION OF 2BILLION PEOPLE-

China’s demographic changes will also have far-reaching implications for the world economy, which has relied on China as a global factory for the past two decades and more. The changes may also affect international peace and security. An aging population is likely to lead to a more peaceful society. But at the same time, the projected 20 to 30 million Chinese men who will not be able to find wives, due to the country’s decades-long imbalanced sex ratio at birth, may constitute a large group of unhappy, dissatisfied people. Claims that these future bachelors will harbor criminal intentions and a propensity to form invading forces against China’s neighbors are unsubstantiated and overblown. Still, the fact that such a large number of Chinese men will not be able to marry is clearly a serious social concern, and the issue should not be neglected.

What also makes China’s demographic future a looming crisis is that, so far, the changes have largely taken place under the radar. This is so in part because China still has the world’s largest population and its population is still growing. It is also due in part to a continued tendency in China and elsewhere to believe that overpopulation is the root cause of all problems. Hence China’s hesitation, even reluctance, to phase out its one child policy—an important cause of the country’s demographic challenges.

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