Just prior to a professional baseball spring training session, you are asked to

Question

 Just prior to a professional baseball spring training session, you are asked to assess the probability that a particular baseball team will win the coming World Series.

a. How would you go about making this assessment?  In what sense is this assessment subjective?

b. If you knew nothing about baseball, what would be the appropriate probability assessment or distribution?  

c.As an avid fan, how would you adjust this “naïve” assessment?  How would your assessment change day by day as the season progressed?

Explanation / Answer

(a) The assessment is subjective prior to the baseball spring training session because the game has yet to get on

and the training is yet to be started, it is difficult to assess the readiness of each of the teams and i would only be able to assess the previous records of each of the teams which may or may not matter in the current season of the tournament

(b) If i knew nothing about baseball, i would consider all teams equal and the probability of their success equal to one another.

(c) I would adjust the naivity after assessing the performance of each of the teams and my assessment would change day after day consequent upon the result of each of the baseball match.

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse J
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.