Your boss has asked you to work up a simulation model to examine the uncertainty

Question

Your boss has asked you to work up a simulation model to examine the uncertainty regarding the success or failure of five different investment projects. He provides probabilities for the success of each project individually: p1=0.50, p2=0.35, p3=0.65, p4=0.58, p5=0.45. Because the projects are run by different people in different segments of the investment market, you both agree that it is reasonable to believe that, given these probabilities, the outcome of the projects are independent. He points out, however, that he really is not fully confident in these probabilities and that he could be off by as much as 0.05 in either direction on any given probability.

How can you incorporate his uncertainty about the probabilities into your simulation?

Explanation / Answer

Assuming you are doing graphical simulation with a X and a Y axis, you could use different colors to represent different probabilities. One color would represent your bosses predicted probabilities while another color representing a border, could represent his margin of error which is +-5%.

Hopefully this answered your question, best of luck.

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