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Historically, the zero curve for a generic nominal risk-free bond market is upwa

ID: 2616332 • Letter: H

Question

Historically, the zero curve for a generic nominal risk-free bond market is upward sloping rather than being flat or downward sloping.

Two Small Parts:

Part One: Can you explain why, all else being equal, such a zero curve would be upward sloping vs. flat or downward sloping?

Part Two: Can you explain why, all else being equal, the zero curve could be upward sloping but have a downward slope at the far end? Essentially, with a slope that decreases but is always positive?

By "all else being equal" I mean that you do not have any specific knowledge of the current business cycle or governments' monetary policy. That is, in my judgment, you do not need to refer to the business cycle or monetary policy to answer this question. Therefore, you do not need the words "inflation," "bei," "real yields," "monetary policy," etc. in your answer.

Explanation / Answer

People need premium (or maturity premium) to hold longer maturity bonds and hence longer maturity have higher yield than shorter maturity and therefore the zero curve is upward sloping

The maturity risk premium increases initially and then becomes very flat and hence the slope is positive but decreases

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